NEW BRUNSWICK, N.J. — Former Republican gubernatorial nominee Jack Ciattarelli is emerging as the clear front-runner among GOP voters in New Jersey’s upcoming June 10 primary, while the Democratic field remains fractured and fluid, according to the latest Rutgers-Eagleton Poll released Thursday.
Forty-two percent of registered Republicans and Republican-leaning independents back Ciattarelli, with the next closest contender, former radio host Bill Spadea, trailing far behind at 12%. No other Republican candidate polled in double digits, and about one-third of GOP voters remain undecided.
Key Points
- Jack Ciattarelli leads Republican field with 42% support; Bill Spadea second at 12%.
- Democratic race shows no clear frontrunner, with six candidates clustered in low double digits.
- Voter turnout expected to be low despite 77% of respondents indicating some likelihood to vote.
“We currently have a tale of two primaries,” said Ashley Koning, director of the Eagleton Center for Public Interest Polling. “On the Republican side, a leading candidate is coming into focus, while on the Democratic side, there is no clear frontrunner.”
Republican voters were evenly divided on the impact of a potential endorsement from former President Donald Trump. Forty-six percent said it would make them more likely to vote for a candidate, while another 46% said it would have no effect. Seven percent indicated it would make them less likely to support the endorsed contender.
Democrats in disarray as frontrunner remains unclear
On the Democratic side, U.S. Rep. Mikie Sherrill leads with 17% support among registered Democrats and Democratic-leaning independents. Jersey City Mayor Steve Fulop follows with 12%, while other candidates—including Sean Spiller (10%), Josh Gottheimer (9%), Ras Baraka (9%), and Steve Sweeney (7%)—remain within striking distance. Roughly one-third of Democratic voters remain undecided.
Second-choice preferences also reflect a highly competitive Democratic race. Gottheimer (16%) and Sherrill (15%) top that list, followed by Baraka (13%), Spiller (12%), Fulop (11%), and Sweeney (6%).
“All of the candidates have made some progress since the fall in terms of voters knowing who they are, but they haven’t made noticeable gains in favorability,” said Koning.
Despite being in the race for months, most candidates on both sides lack strong name recognition or favorable impressions among voters.
Candidate recognition remains low across both parties
Among Democrats, Sherrill has the highest favorability at 20%, but 44% of voters still don’t know who she is. Gottheimer is recognized by more voters but garners a nearly equal share of favorable (18%) and unfavorable (19%) ratings. Fulop, Baraka, Spiller, and Sweeney all register similarly low favorability scores and high levels of unfamiliarity.
On the Republican side, Ciattarelli is somewhat better known, with 18% favorable and 24% unfavorable ratings. Spadea is viewed favorably by just 8% of voters, while 51% say they don’t know him. Bramnick, with 6% favorability and 65% unfamiliarity, remains largely unknown statewide.
Voter enthusiasm also faces obstacles. Although 55% of respondents said they are “very likely” to vote in the June primary and another 22% said they are “somewhat likely,” historical data suggests actual turnout will be significantly lower.
Poll methodology and turnout outlook
“This kind of turnout in an off-cycle election is unlikely, particularly given New Jersey’s history of low primary turnout,” said Jessica Roman, director of data management and analysis at ECPIP. “Turnout is generally much lower in off-cycle, off-year, and primary elections. This June will be about who candidates get to turn out and how many.”
The poll, conducted from April 1 to April 10, surveyed 1,058 adults as part of the Rutgers-Eagleton/SSRS Garden State Panel. The margin of error for the full sample is ±4.1 percentage points, and ±4.3 percentage points for the subsample of 966 registered voters.
With both parties heading toward unpredictable primaries, name recognition and ground-level voter mobilization could prove decisive.