TRENTON, N.J. — Bill Spadea is a seasoned media entertainer and radio host. There’s just one problem. In a time where most people are now listening to SirusXM, podcasts, and Spotify on a daily basis, few still listen to the radio.
Despite Spadea’s projection of inherent star power, nearly half of all Republican voters have no idea who he is and 80% don’t see him favorably.
A new poll highlights the divide between Spadea and his opponents outside his loyal MAGA following.
Former State Rep. Jack Ciattarelli holds a strong lead in the Republican primary race for New Jersey governor, but a new poll shows warning signs for his campaign among the growing number of MAGA-aligned voters in the party.
The latest Fairleigh Dickinson University (FDU) Poll, released Wednesday, surveyed Republican voters and found that Ciattarelli, the party’s 2021 nominee, is the most recognized and favored candidate in the field. However, his support is less solid among conservatives and Trump-aligned voters, who make up a large share of the GOP electorate.
The poll found that 78% of Republicans recognize Ciattarelli’s name, and 39% view him favorably. His three main rivals—radio host Bill Spadea, former State Sen. Ed “The Trucker” Durr, and former Assemblyman John Bramnick—trail in name recognition and favorability.
Spadea is recognized by 54% of Republicans, the highest after Ciattarelli, but only 20% see him favorably.
“The fact that Ciattarelli has run before means that voters know who he is, but he also has much higher unfavorables than the other Republicans in the race,” said Dan Cassino, executive director of the FDU Poll and a professor of government and politics. “He’s currently in the strongest position, but these numbers show how tenuous that advantage is.”
The Republican electorate in New Jersey is shifting, with ideological divisions shaping the race. A majority of GOP voters identify as either conservative (53%) or MAGA supporters (46%), while moderates make up just 21% of the party. Among these groups, Ciattarelli leads in favorability among conservatives and MAGA-aligned voters but faces stiffer competition among moderates, where Spadea and Durr are polling close behind him.
One key challenge for Ciattarelli is his standing among MAGA voters. While 45% view him favorably, 17% have an unfavorable opinion, higher than any of his rivals. In comparison, only 10% of MAGA voters see Spadea negatively.
“Bramnick has been banking on a revival of the moderate lane in the party, but it doesn’t seem to be getting him anywhere yet,” Cassino said. “It’s not clear if there are enough moderates left in the party to balance out the growing number of MAGA supporters.”
Voter age could play a critical role in the primary outcome. Ciattarelli is far more popular among older Republicans, with 54% of GOP voters aged 65 and over holding a favorable view of him. His closest competitor in this group, Bramnick, stands at just 13%. However, among Republicans under 45, Ciattarelli, Spadea, and Durr are in a statistical tie in favorability, despite Ciattarelli’s greater name recognition.
“Young Republicans in the state just don’t look like older ones: they’re much more likely to be MAGA voters and even describe themselves as libertarian or nationalist,” said Cassino. “If they turn out in large numbers, this is a very different race than one that’s dominated by older voters.”
While name recognition and favorability do not directly predict primary election results, they indicate the challenges candidates face in solidifying their support. The poll suggests that while Ciattarelli leads, his path to victory is far from guaranteed in a shifting GOP landscape.