PHILADELPHIA, PA — A recent Emerson College Polling/The Hill survey indicates a tight race for the presidency in Pennsylvania, with former President Donald Trump garnering 47% support against President Joe Biden’s 43%. Ten percent of voters remain undecided. Trump’s support climbs to 52%, and Biden’s to 48%, when these undecided voters are asked about their leanings.
Spencer Kimball, executive director of Emerson College Polling, highlights a fundamental difference in voter motivation between supporters of Trump and Biden. Trump enthusiasts back him for his stance on issues, personal affinity, or opposition to Biden. Conversely, a significant portion of Biden’s backers are driven by their disapproval of Trump.
In terms of key issues, 45% of Trump’s issue-focused supporters identify the economy as their primary concern, followed by immigration at 24%. When third-party candidates are factored into the equation, Trump’s lead slightly narrows to 44%, with Biden at 40%, Robert Kennedy Jr. at 5%, and Cornel West and Jill Stein each receiving 1% support.
The poll also reveals the economy as the paramount issue for 36% of voters, overshadowing crime, immigration, threats to democracy, healthcare, education, housing affordability, and abortion access. In a hypothetical Senate race, incumbent Democrat Bob Casey leads Republican Dave McCormick 45% to 41%, a gap that widens slightly when undecided voters are considered.
Independent voters predominantly favor Casey over McCormick, and a small percentage of Trump and Biden voters are willing to cross party lines in their Senate race choices. Biden’s job approval rating stands at 38%, with a disapproval rating of 55%, while Governor Josh Shapiro enjoys a higher approval rating.
The survey also explored voter opinions on which presidential candidate would better handle immigration/border security, abortion access, and the Israel-Hamas conflict. Trump leads in perceptions of handling immigration and the Israel-Hamas issue, whereas Biden is favored for abortion access. Finally, Biden’s age and Trump’s criminal indictments are significant concerns for voters, including independents, casting doubt on their potential support in 2024.