Washington, D.C. – Recent shifts in party affiliation among various demographic groups have reshaped the political landscape, with the Democratic Party experiencing a decline in support among Black and Hispanic adults, according to a comprehensive analysis of Americans’ party preferences. This trend marks a significant change from previous years, where Democrats enjoyed substantial leads over Republicans among these key voter segments.
The Democratic Party’s once-dominant position among Black Americans has narrowed dramatically, with their lead diminishing by nearly 20 points over the last three years. Similarly, the party’s advantage among Hispanic adults and those aged 18 to 29 has decreased, leaving Democrats with only a modest edge within these groups. Contrasts are stark when considering the parity Democrats held with Republicans among men and non-college-educated adults in past years, a balance that has since shifted unfavorably for Democrats.
Despite these challenges, Democrats have seen gains among college-educated Americans, both with postgraduate education and those with a bachelor’s degree, partially offsetting losses in other demographics. This evolution in party affiliation has contributed to the current political dynamics, where Democrats have moved from enjoying significant advantages over Republicans to facing slight deficits in 2022 and 2023. Gallup’s latest data shows that only 27% of U.S. adults identify as Democrats, with 43% identifying as or leaning toward the Democratic Party, both figures representing new lows.
In 2023, Democrats maintained a 47-percentage-point lead among non-Hispanic Black adults, with two-thirds identifying or leaning Democratic. However, this advantage is the smallest recorded by Gallup since it began tracking this data in 1999. Similarly, the 12-point advantage among Hispanic adults is the lowest since Gallup started conducting interviews in Spanish in 2011. While Democrats have held onto strong support among nonreligious adults, postgraduates, and residents of big cities, they now face greater competition in attracting men, non-college-educated adults, and residents of the South and semi-regular church attenders, where Republicans have gained ground.