Kim Leads Murphy in New Jersey Senate Primary Race, FDU Poll Reveals
Madison, NJ – Congressman Andy Kim is currently leading First Lady Tammy Murphy in the race for the Senate seat held by Senator Bob Menendez, according to a recent Fairleigh Dickinson University Poll. Kim, who has served New Jersey’s 3rd Congressional district since 2019, holds a 32% to 20% advantage over Murphy among likely Democratic primary voters, with 31% still undecided.
The poll, directed by FDU professor of Government and Politics Dan Cassino, suggests a shift in the state’s political dynamics. “This election is a test of whether county organizations still have the power to choose a candidate,” Cassino stated, highlighting the unusual nature of Murphy’s lag despite significant institutional support.
Senator Menendez garners nine percent of the vote, while labor activist Patricia Campos-Medina has an eight percent share. Kim’s lead is more pronounced among self-identified liberals and progressives, where he leads 40 to 19 and 43 to 18, respectively. Conversely, Murphy has a slight edge among conservative Democrats.
Despite Murphy’s greater name recognition (68% to Kim’s 52%), Kim leads in favorability, with 24% of Democratic primary voters “strongly approving” of him versus 13% for Murphy. Menendez, with high name recognition (90%), faces a 53% strong disapproval rate among Democratic primary voters. Campos-Medina is recognized by 14% of voters.
Kim is perceived as more liberal than his competitors, with a mean ranking of 3.9 on a liberal to conservative scale, compared to 4.5 for Murphy and 4.9 for Menendez. This perception affects voter support across racial lines, with Kim leading among white and Asian-American voters, while Murphy has stronger support among Black and Hispanic voters. Menendez and Campos-Medina show competitive support among Hispanic voters.
Cassino notes that Kim’s centrist appeal contrasts with the preference of white liberal voters who reject the influence of county organizations, creating a division between them and more moderate Black and Hispanic voters rallying behind Murphy. This race illustrates the complex interplay of ideology, race, and party dynamics within New Jersey’s Democratic electorate.