TRENTON, NJ – The cost of food for Americans, especially those in New Jersey, New York, and Pennsylvania, is declining. Consumers should be rejoicing over the low costs of Thanksgiving and Christmas holiday meals, according to President Joe Biden and the White House.
If you’re not seeing it or feeling it when you go to the grocery store, it’s not you. The President’s claim is essentially false, and a new USDA report proves it. Prices are still going up for food overall in America.
Food in 2023 is still more expensive than food in 2023 despite multiple claims made by President Joe Biden, Vice President Kamala Harris, and Press Secretary Karine Jean-Pierre to the contrary. A new USDA food cost report shows prices for food in November 2023 were higher than in 2022 overall.
While the inflation rate is slowly decreasing over the past few months, food prices in November 2023 were higher than food prices at the same time a year ago, the report shows.
The latest USDA report, incorporating November 2023 Consumer Price Index (CPI) and Producer Price Index data, reveals a nuanced picture of food price trends in the United States.
“As we start preparing our Thanksgiving meals, grocery inflation is at its lowest level in over two years, with prices for eggs, milk, bacon and fresh veggies lower than last year,” she said in a Nov. 20 press briefing. “In fact, according to the American Farm Bureau, the cost of a Thanksgiving dinner fell this year. Prices are down for turkey, stuffing, peas, cranberries, pie crust and whipping cream. … Because wages are rising, this Thanksgiving dinner is the fourth-cheapest ever as a percentage of average earnings.”
“Because wages are rising, this Thanksgiving dinner is the fourth-cheapest ever as a percentage of average earnings,” Jean-Pierre said prior to the holiday, a claim explained in detail by Politifact.
Politifact found the White House had omitted foods often associated with the holiday in the White House statement.
“The cost of the more expansive meal basket increased by $3.45 from 2022 to 2023; Jean-Pierre did not mention ham, potatoes, or green beans in her briefing,” PolitiFact reported.
The all-items CPI, an economy-wide inflation gauge, dropped 0.2 percent from October to November 2023, registering a 3.1 percent rise since November 2022. Food prices followed a similar pattern, decreasing 0.2 percent month-over-month and climbing 2.9 percent year-over-year.
Notably, food price inflation differed based on purchase location. The food-at-home category (grocery store purchases) saw a 0.5 percent decline from October to November 2023, but a 1.7 percent increase from the previous year. In contrast, the food-away-from-home segment (restaurant purchases) rose 0.4 percent in November 2023, showing a significant 5.3 percent hike compared to November 2022.
The report forecasts a slowdown in food price growth for 2023, albeit still above historical averages. All food prices are expected to rise by 5.8 percent, with food-at-home prices increasing by 5.0 percent and food-away-from-home prices jumping by 7.1 percent. However, 2024 anticipates a further deceleration, with overall food prices predicted to increase by just 1.2 percent, including a potential 0.6 percent decrease in food-at-home prices and a 4.9 percent rise in food-away-from-home prices.
These projections, based on statistical models tailored to recent trends, provide a range of predicted outcomes, reflecting varying degrees of uncertainty. The report emphasizes that despite recent moderations in price growth, the annual forecast for 2023 remains high due to significant price increases earlier in the year. For more details on the forecasting methods, the report directs readers to the ERS’s explanation in “ERS Refines Forecasting Methods in the Food Price Outlook.”