NEW YORK, NY — A recent study published in Nature Communications has provided insights into how flood exposure is influencing population trends in the United States. The research, led by Evelyn G. Shu and a team of experts, utilized historic flood data from 2000 to 2023 across the Contiguous United States to understand the relationship between flood exposure and population changes.
The study correlates the fleeing from major U.S. cities with climate change and not the decline in quality of life, increase in crime or other factors such as COVID-19 related remote working opportunities or job availability as major corporations also fled from many cities.
“Flood exposure has been linked to shifts in population sizes and composition. Traditionally, these changes have been observed at a local level providing insight to local dynamics but not general trends, or at a coarse resolution that does not capture localized shifts,” the study claims.
The study revealed a statistically significant association between higher levels of historic flood exposure and observed declines in population. Specifically, areas with high-frequency flooding experienced growth rates 2-7% lower than baseline projections. This trend is more pronounced in regions with frequent and severe flooding, where population growth is expected to decrease over the next 30 years.
This research contributes to the understanding of climate migration, particularly locally, highlighting the impact of lower impact but persistent flood events on population shifts. The findings suggest that up to 13.1 million people in the U.S. could be at risk of inundation from sea level rise by 2100, potentially leading to migration patterns similar to those of the Great Migration in the 20th century.